The European Champions
Cup is the pinnacle of the domestic game in the Northern Hemisphere and now after the gruelling group stages, just eight teams remain with four English
sides, three French sides and a solitary Irish province left in the
competition. History informs us that home is where the heart when it comes to
successful knockout European rugby, of the seventy two European quarter finals
only eighteen have been won by the away sides, a mere twenty five per cent. That
statistic speaks volumes and in 2015 all four of our Aviva Premiership side’s
must travel away to notorious rugby strongholds; the Aviva Stadium, the Stade
Marcél-Michelin, the Stade Yves-Du-Manoir and of course Toulon’s Stade Félix
Mayol.
The Out On The Full focus is on the opening game of
the weekend that will be played in Dublin between Bath Rugby and Leinster, in
front of an expected crowd of 45,000 plus. Leinster are highly experienced at
handling the pressure of knockout European Rugby, their record speaks for
itself having won six of the ten Quarter Final fixtures that they have been
involved in and importantly four of their last five. Drilling down to the head
to head matches against Bath Rugby Matt O’Connor’s side also have the advantage
having won five of their six meetings however I, like many others believe that
Bath Rugby are the Aviva Premiership side with the greatest chance of
progressing through to the Semi Finals.
 |
| Bath's winning selfie in Toulouse @DomDay7 |
The fortunate scheduling of the Aviva Premiership
meant that Mike Ford was able to give his key talisman ample rest following the
RBS 6 Nations, a luxury that not every side had and one that will mean the
linchpins of the side are flying come Saturday afternoon. In Europe, Bath, like
Wasps, qualified having lost their first two group games and their defining
victory was away at Toulouse in January. In my eyes that game was ample
preparation for what lies ahead this weekend, Bath flew to France and stamped
all over the intimating atmosphere and history of Toulouse. Ford’s men coolly
nullified the French giants with their intensity up front and dynamism in the
back and I expect them to perform to the same level on Saturday
afternoon.
As England’s RBS 6 Nations game a few weeks ago highlighted the breakdown will be a vital area that Bath must gain superiority of and they must do so from the outset. Leinster’s proficiency at ruck time is renowned with Messers Heaslip & O’Brien leading the charge. Referee Jermone Garces is firm with the whistle and both sides must ensure they have an understanding of his limits from the outset to avoid being penalised more than necessary. Leinster are astute around the fringes, O’Conner’s men are wily operators when it comes to holding a man down slightly longer than necessary post tackle or taking a man slightly off the ball and that is something I’m sure Bath will have noted and be ready for. The pressure on Bath’s back row is high however with the experienced Francois Louw and the physicality of Leroy Houston I expect them to stand up and deliver.
As England’s RBS 6 Nations game a few weeks ago highlighted the breakdown will be a vital area that Bath must gain superiority of and they must do so from the outset. Leinster’s proficiency at ruck time is renowned with Messers Heaslip & O’Brien leading the charge. Referee Jermone Garces is firm with the whistle and both sides must ensure they have an understanding of his limits from the outset to avoid being penalised more than necessary. Leinster are astute around the fringes, O’Conner’s men are wily operators when it comes to holding a man down slightly longer than necessary post tackle or taking a man slightly off the ball and that is something I’m sure Bath will have noted and be ready for. The pressure on Bath’s back row is high however with the experienced Francois Louw and the physicality of Leroy Houston I expect them to stand up and deliver.
Out the back both sides love to play with ball in
hand and show off their footballing abilities... to use the words of the Bath
management, they are ‘two positive sides’. Interestingly when you look at the
statistics there is little to choose between them in terms of number of tries
scored per game, the number of clean breaks or the average number meters made
however there is one vital difference and that is the percentage off the tee.
Bath’s 84% success rate eclipses Leinster’s 74% and as we all know when it
comes to knockout rugby a single penalty is all that it takes to secure
victory. This week Leinster haven’t been shy in stating their intent to
‘target’ George Ford and shut him down as quickly as possible and in my view
this is nothing new. Now, in 2015 I believe that every single side aims to
shutdown Ford, whether they overtly state it or not for he is Bath’s playmaker
and intrinsic to their game. This statement and intent will not change the
visitor’s game plan in the slightest and should not intimidate Ford himself.
Bath’s backs are some of the most effervescent, vibrant and naturally talented
of the Aviva Premiership and it will be the spark of Jonathan Joseph, Kyle
Eastmond and Anthony Watson in particular that form the heart of Bath’s
charge. Leinster house their own pearls; Kearney, McFadden, Fitzgerald
and Madigan and when they hit their stride they’re as dangerous as they come
and the prospect of these positive sides running at each other is delightful.
Leinster have the history, home advantage and a back
catalogue of Quarter Final victories to draw upon however right now there is
something exciting about Bath. Every single facet of the game will be contested
to Test Match level and in front so many passionate fans there will be no
place to hide. During the course of this season in particular our Aviva
Premiership side have developed a steely edge and a winning mentality and if
they put their game on the park, no holds barred they might just break Irish
hearts.
