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May 14, 2015

Calculators Out - Aviva Premiership Round 22 Preview


After such an intense and exciting season it is fitting that we are heading into the final day of action calculating all manner of permutations and outcomes. However by late on Saturday afternoon things will all become clear as we'll know which sides will take on the Northampton Saints and Bath Rugby in the playoffs and which side will take the final European Champions Cup automatic qualification spot. 

So, in terms of the race for the final two playoff spots a little background is required prior to the usual match previews. Mathematically Saracens, Leicester and the Exeter Chiefs remain in the hunt and the key match is the East Midlands Derby between Leicester and the Northampton Saints. If Leicester deliver a victory then they secure themselves third place, for a victory takes them to 68 points and crucially they have won an extra game over Saracens and Exeter, the other two sides that could achieve 68 points. If both Saracens and Exeter achieve bonus point victories then it will go down to points difference as to which progresses, due to the fact they both have won the same number of games this season, they're difference going into the round is just three! If Leicester lose then they could miss out entirely, however if the Chiefs lose too then fourth is Leicester's and they set up another East Midland's Semi Final Derby. Now, if I went into the losing bonus point or draw scenarios then we could be here for a while so I won't... the long and the short of it is that this weekend wins and points are imperative and then it is time to get the calculators out!! 

At Welford Road the fact of the matter is that the Leicester Tigers need the victory whilst their opponents, the Northampton Saints, have already secured their home Semi Final. Jim Mallinder’s selection decision has everyone talking, will he put out a strong side or will he decide to rotate and give others game time? You can argue it both ways; winning a Derby Fixture with a full strength side gives great momentum and purpose for the knockouts equally resting some key men and having zero risk of injuries allows preparation to be perfect for the week after. Leicester Tigers will be at full strength  across the park, except in the centres after Seremaia Bai's three week ban for his red mist ruck clearance. We saw how much this competition means to all at Leicester last weekend and Welford Road will be positively rocking. In summary a huge game awaits as do Friday lunchtime’s selection announcements! 

The Exeter Chiefs will welcome the Sale Sharks to Sandy Park  knowing that they have to go for broke and then see what happens elsewhere. The Sale Sharks' fate depends on Wasps' result however with the synchronised kick off times mean that they will have to play to win, there's no other option. The prospect of Exeter’s exciting centres Hill, Slade or even Nowell, depending on who is selected, facing off against Sale’s powerhouses, Tuitupou and Leota, is an exciting one. The home side will be willing Thomas Waldrom on to score the couple more tries that would take him into the record books and as a collective they'll need to think clearly under pressure, for this isn't the time to let their emotions get the better of them. Home advantage should help significantly and I expect Exeter to deliver a big performance. 

One match that won't impact proceedings at the top but will be a belting clash is the West Country Derby between Bath Rugby and Gloucester Rugby at The Rec. Whilst Bath Rugby have already qualified for the playoffs following their victory at Harlequins Mike Ford spoke about the benefits of attacking the knockouts with confidence and momentum so I'm expecting a strong XV to be selected. Gloucester also have a match beyond this one to think about and judging by David Humprheys’ previous decisions I’d expect him to place a few of his big guns on the bench and start others in front of them. For both sides a win is paramount to head into their next fixtures on a high and that can only be achieved by maintaining their structures, discipline and composure in the face of their fiercest Aviva Premiership rival... the stage is set for a good’un!!


In Reading London Irish will welcome Wasps Rugby to the Madjeski Stadium and they have the opportunity of spoiling Wasps’ season for if they win Dai Young’s side could miss out on that final European Champions Cup spot. At Kingsholm in Round 21 the Exiles’ downfall was their discipline and this must be addressed prior to this fixture because with the boots of Andy Goode and Elliot Daly on the field they’ll be punished in exactly the same way if they don’t clean up their act. Wasps will be hurting after their unsuccessful Derby Day against the Leicester Tigers and hell bent on securing their place in Europe, I expect them to be back on form and deliver a strong dose of physicality on the road. 

The Kassam Stadium will host London Welsh’s last Aviva Premiership match before they head back to the Championship and start the heady process of rebuilding their confidence after what has been a brutal season. However the scheduling gods haven’t been kind to them and Saracens are their opponents! Saracens must add a full 5 points into the 63 that they have secured to date to put the pressure on the Exeter Chiefs’ who are at home to the Sale Sharks. Importantly if Exeter gain a bonus point win too then as mentioned it goes down to points difference... so Saracens must unleash an all court attacking game and go for a half century at least. A full strength Saracens’ side will be travelling to Oxford and London Welsh must be prepared for one final bruising battle. 

Finally Harlequins will make the long journey up North to take on the Newcastle Falcons at Kingston Park. In terms of the table standings this one won’t have any impact on the race for the final European Champions Cup qualification spot or the playoffs however it will be a competitive fixture. Harlequins are likely to field a few men that haven’t had as much game time as they would like like season and with that adds immediate personal motivation for players to do themselves justice. The home side are without a win in their last eight domestic outings and will be bitterly disappointed with their confirmed 11th place finish so I expect them to go all out to show that their improvement is more marked than their constant finish in the table suggests.