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March 25, 2016

Aviva Premiership Round 18 Preview

While many people across the country are putting their feet up our Aviva Premiership teams are ready and prepared for one of the most important rounds of the domestic season. With just 5 rounds to go every single point counts and the prospect of so many in form Internationals returning to league action means that we could see some of the best games of the season this Easter weekend. 

Some will say that all of England's Grand Slam winners should have been given time off but I can guarantee you that the ones that will be running out this weekend will be eager to continue playing rugby. England's Grand Slam saw so many players really ignite their personal form and they'll all arrive back to their clubs with a great deal of confidence and energy. Across the board there are scintillating matches including a top of the table clash and a West Country Derby so I do hope that within your Easter plans you’ve blocked out ample time to go to, or watch, the domestic action?

Round 18 is starting with an almighty clash between the top two sides in the competition and some are predicting this to be a dress rehearsal for the 2016 Final! Saracens have won just one of their last 4 matches and lost 2 of their last 3 at home but are welcoming back some of England’s and indeed Europe’s finest. Conversely Exeter have only lost once in their last five Premiership fixtures and were victorious on their most recent visit to Allianz Park in Round 21 last season. Saracens’ England stars will provide everything that they’ve been missing, a seamless set piece, immense physical go forward and outstanding game management. Over the past few weeks we’ve seen Exeter allow opponents into matches only to squash them eventually but against Saracens they cannot do that. All of the Chiefs’ fundamentals need to be on point from the word go. We need to see more stardust from Henry Slade and across the board they have to be physically robust.

It is not just another Premiership round at Kingsholm, it is a Derby round and that means that emotions and performance levels rise up a level. Slowly but surely we’ve started to see Bath playing a bit more rugby and their recent progress should be accelerated greatly by the return of George Ford, Anthony Watson and Jonathan Joseph. All three arrive back at Bath playing at a higher standard than when they left in January and that will be vital for their team’s output. For Gloucester Rugby Saturday will be about ensuring that their pack are firing on all four cylinders and that the whole of the back line follow Tom Marshall 's lead. As always discilpine will be king, especially from Bath for they have given away the most yellow cards in the competition to date and cannot afford to get on the wrong side of Wayne Barnes. A little look at the Met Office website is predicting rain and that will add yet another dimension to an already intriguing fixture. 
Currently 13 league points separate Worcester Warriors and London Irish and after Saturday’s encounter the home side will be hoping that it becomes more. London Irish had been building towards a victory for a few rounds but gaining back-to-back results is an altogether different beast. Worcester make just one change, welcoming back Cooper Vuna and the settled nature to their XV is a great asset. Irish’s pack have to produce a similar performance to the one they delivered at the Madejski last weekend and collective self-belief will be vital. Both sides know the importance of Round 18 to their respective fortunes but my gut feel says that the home side will deliver the more all around performance and take the spoils.
At the AJ Bell Stadium Sale Sharks’ unbeaten 2016 home record is going to be put under severe pressure as the Leicester Tigers are arriving in town. Leicester are throwing Dan Cole, Ben Youngs and Manu Tuilagi straight back into their starting line-up and like the rest of their England teammates all will be brimming with confidence. Steve Diamond has made a number of changes to the side that lost to Wasps and will be demanding a much higher output in Round 18. Physicality will be the name of the game at the AJ Bell Stadium and of course Sale’s defensive output will be severely tested with the multiple threats housed in Tigers’ back line. Both sides' packs are proficient at the set piece and will look to overpower the other in closer quarters while out the back I expect to see metres carved up and half-backs wrestling for supremacy. 
The Round 18 match at Kingston Park between Newcastle Falcons and Wasps is being billed ‘Goode Sunday’ in honour of Andy Goode’s last professional match. In a short time the fly-half has become a fans' favourite in the North East and has been superb during his short-term contract. However it could be a difficult afternoon for the home side as the form book is heavily skewed in the favour of the visitors. Wasps have lost only one of the last nine encounters in all tournaments while the home side have slipped to four straight defeats. Dean Richards has made four changes to his backline with Michael Young, Adam Powell and Alex Tait starting and then Sean Robinson coming into the pack. Dai Young is welcoming back some of his big guns with Joe Launchbury and Elliot Daly returning from England duties and George Smith fit again. If I’m brutally honest I expect it to be a difficult afternoon for the home side, Wasps are absolutely flying at the moment and I don’t think that Newcastle, even on top form, will have the power to stop them.
The final game of the weekend will be played at Franklin’s Gardens where the Northampton Saints will host Harlequins. The RBS 6 Nations period has been brutal for the visitors and they gladly welcome back Danny Care, Tim Visser, Jamie Roberts, Joe Marler, Jack Clifford and Mike Brown into their starting line up with Chris Robshaw taking a place on the bench. The impact that all seven players will have means that we cannot look back at Quins’ previous output as a barometer for Sunday afternoon’s match. The Northampton Saints also have returning fire-power to boost their line up with Luther Burrell, George North and Stephen Myler coming into the back line and Kieran Brookes and Tom Wood returning to the pack. I’m fascinated to see what impact an in form George North will have on Saints' back line and Harlequins should fly with the calibre of their starting XV. 

Round 18 Stats & Facts

  • Saracens have relinquished top spot in the Aviva Premiership table for the first time this season, having won just one of their last four matches 
  • Bath have been victorious on their last two visits to Kinghsolm in Aviva Premiership Rugby – no visiting team has ever won three successive Premiership Rugby fixtures at the famous old ground.
  • Worcester Warriors have won their last three Aviva Premiership Rugby matches but have never won four in a row in the history of the tournament.
  • Sale have not lost in any competition at AJ Bell Stadium since Harlequins were the visitors in Premiership Rugby on 25th April 2015.
  • Wasps have lost only one of their last nine encounters in all tournaments, 10-13 at Gloucester in their most recent away game in round 15 of Aviva Premiership Rugby – they have not lost successive away games in the tournament since the start of this season.
  • The Saints have won their last six fixtures against Harlequins in all tournaments since the Londoners’ 22-19 victory at the Stoop in Premiership Rugby in May 2013.