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April 28, 2016

Aviva Premiership Round 21 - Preview

As is often the case at this point in the season there are plenty of permutations and 'what ifs' regarding Round 21's results. Ahead of the Premiership weekend there's a play-off spot that's up for grabs, European rugby to strive for, home semi-final places to get closer to or secure and the small matter of the relegation battle. 

The round starts on Friday night at the AJ Bell Stadium where Sale are endeavouring to finish the Premiership season unbeaten on home soil. The Sharks' three game domestic winning run ended with their defeat at Bath last Saturday. In the opening-half they looked decidely off colour, but after Steve Diamond read the riot act at half-time they claimed two valuable points from their trip to The Rec. In Round 20 Gloucester Rugby showed what they are made of with a gutsy victory over the Exeter Chiefs, finally they put their full game on the park and they have to do so again. David Humphreys’ side have been plagued with inconsistency all year and as a result have won just once away from home since Round 1. A victory for Sale keeps them mathematically in the hunt for Top 4, only before Saturday’s games, but really both are striving for Top 6. The last four fixtures between the two clubs have all gone the way of the home side and interestingly Gloucester were the last side to go a full Premiership season without losing at home back in 2010/11. 

At Welford Road Richard Cockerill’s Leicester Tigers will be looking to banish a few bad memories from last weekend where their handling deserted them. In the two weeks since Worcester’s loss to Wasps I expect Dean Ryan to have gone down hard on his side after he branded their opening-half as totally ‘unacceptable’. Without question the pressure, and expectation, is on Leicester as a victory would see them claim a play-off spot for the twelfth straight year. In a dozen previous visits Worcester have never won at Welford Road and although they’ll compete and push Leicester I can’t see an away victory happening on Saturday. During the week it was a shame to see that Freddie Burns’ season is over but Owen Williams showed at the City Ground that he'll continue the work that Freddie started this year and I expect that across the board errors levels should diminish.

In the final Saturday match Jim Mallinder's Northampton Saints will host Bath Rugby at Franklin's Gardens. Bath should be confident off their bonus-point victory over Sale, although the gloss was taken off it slightly as they didn’t finish as strongly as they started. Saints’ extended break should have given them some time to let a few of their injured players heal. Kahn Fotuali’i and Lee Dickson are both back in training and Alex King has said that he hopes to have ‘one or two guys back’ but didn’t divulge any further details. That said Northampton have been showing great resolve without their big guns and will want to continue to do so on home soil. Bath have won just once at Franklin’s Gardens since 2000 and it would be a huge result for them if they performed on the road and finally broke the hoodoo that the ground has over them. Anthony Watson will be back after his suspension and with Francois Louw and Matt Garvey set to return from injury personnel wise the visitors are looking in fairly good shape.

When the Exeter Chiefs run out at Sandy Park on Sunday afternoon I expect them to be greeted by a rapturous reception having secured Premiership play-off rugby for the first time in their history. Wasps also have their play-off place secured and now it’s a battle between the two for a home semi-final. That contest and the manner in which their previous meeting in the Champions Cup panned out means that this fixture should have plenty of niggle and bite to it. All of the sublime head-to-heads remain and with the two Piutau’s, Wade, Nowell, Slade and co on the field I just hope that the Great British weather is conducive to positive rugby. Of course Wasps will keep an eye on Exeter’s driving maul and if you fancy having a little flutter then Thomas Waldrom as the first try scorer isn't the worst bet in the world!! Exeter have lost just once at Sandy Park since January 2015 and Wasps have lost just one of their last 12 Premiership outings… in short we’re set for a humdinger of a fixture.

At the Madejski Stadium it is almost the last chance saloon for London Irish as they host Harlequins. The fact of the matter is that the Exiles’ record against their rivals isn’t great, they’ve won just one of their last 11 meetings and the only positive is that it was at the Madejski Stadium. The form book, and base levels of output of both sides, mean that it should be a straightforward away victory. Harlequins’ collective experience and firepower eclipses their counterparts but as Irish showed in their Challenge Cup quarter-final they can compete if they catch Quins napping. The overwhelming odds are against Tom Coventry’s side, Harlequins still have a Top 6 place to play for so are likely to field a strong side and Irish are staring in the face of relegation. The home team have to play with more freedom in order to make opportunities stick but when it’s do or die that’s tremendously difficult to do especially against a team of Quins’ calibre. 

The final game of the weekend will be at Allianz Park where Saracens will host Newcastle Falcons. At the Madejski Mark McCall’s side showed that they are the form team in Europe and although they've been on a team bonding trip to Dubrovnik I don’t expect that impact the result at the weekend. Saracens have already qualified for their seventh straight semi-final spot and have won their last five matches in all tournaments. If Dean Richards’ side do perform the seemingly impossible and topple Saracens then they would secure their safety for next season and condone Irish to the Championship but it's unlikely. Falcons haven't not won away from home since a visit to London Welsh back in October 2014 and at Allianz Park Saracens will be firing on all four cylinders to deliver Jacques Burger with the  fitting send off that he deserves.

Full Premiership Round 21 Schedule

Fri 29 April - 7.45pm - Sale Sharks v Gloucester Rugby
Sat 30 April - 3pm - Leicester Tigers v Worcester Warriors 
Sat 30 April - 3.15pm - Northampton Saints v Bath Rugby (BT Sport)
Sun 1 May - 1pm - Exeter Chiefs v Wasps (BT Sport)
Sun 1 May - 3pm - London Irish v Harlequins
Sun 1 May - 3.15pm - Saracens v Newcastle Falcons (BT Sport)