… and then there were eight!
It’s Champions Cup quarter-final time and this season’s four fixtures have had us all enraptured since they were decided at the end of January. Last season the latter stages of the competition was dominated by English and French sides but with Munster and Leinster firmly back in the mix the provinces are flying their flags high and are firmly in the mix.
Of course one of the unique features of the Champions Cup is the break between the Pool stage finishing and knockout rugby arriving and it does add another dimension to consider. That said if anyone saw Saracens play at the weekend it’s clear that the best of the best can spring straight back into fifth gear in the blink of an eye.
There’s no questioning the fact that the home teams go into every set of European quarter-final as favourites. Historically there has been a 76% success rate to the home sides and that needs no further explanation as to why because would you fancy heading to Thomond Park or the Stade Marcel-Michelin to play an all or nothing game? No, neither would I!
Leinster Rugby v Wasps - KO 15:15 live on BT Sport 2
So what of the individual matches themselves? Well let’s start at the top with Leo Cullen’s Leinster hosting Wasps and as long as the weather plays ball this promises to be a belter. Together they’ve scored 172 tries this season and we’ve seen some crackers in Europe including Jamison Gibson-Park’s solo score at Franklin’s Gardens, Dan Robson’s snipe at the Ricoh Arena and many more. Both love to play with ball in hand and entertain the crowd but Isa Nacewa said to me that they’re well aware that the type of rugby you play in the Pool stage often needs just a little tweak to it to ensure that the W is delivered in a knockout match. That said I’m not expecting Leinster to go into themselves but we’ll see the fruits of the likes of Jonathan Sexton at 10 as he knows how much to distribute versus putting boot to ball and gaining valuable territory or points.
We’ve seen this season that Wasps don’t mind shipping the odd try or two and instead outscore their opponents but Leinster aren’t any ordinary side and rock solid defence will be critical form the Premiership side. Both have benches with power that should arrive and make a difference in the game and my feeling on this one is that it’s going to go right down to the wire.
In my opinion last season’s shellackings when Wasps put Leinster to the sword will have absolutely no bearing on Saturday’s outcome. A year or so on Leinster are an altogether different side, they are in a wholly different place right now and in front of a packed house they know what’s expected from them. Equally Dai Young’s Wasps know the quality that they have within their ranks and know that it’s going to take something very special from their opponents to contain them. On the whole this makes the first game of the weekend a potential humdinger and one that will start the quarter-finals on absolutely the right foot.
Match Fact: This will be the eighth meeting between the two clubs in the European Cup and is Wasps' 100th appearance in Europe's top flight.
Munster Rugby v Toulouse - KO 17:45 - Live on Sky Sports 2
Next Thomond Park opens its doors for Munster Rugby against Toulouse and in my opinion this game is very easy to call as I’m sure that you’ll all agree.
Of course Toulouse are the most decorated side in European history yet it’s no secret that they are not the Toulouse of old. The class of 2017 have to try recreate some of the pomp and swagger that they used to have of old on Saturday early evening or else they’ll be wholly swallowed up by the emotion and intensity of Thomond Park.
The tragedy that befell on Munster Rugby earlier this season still hurts them all acutely and from the outside looking in they have continued to play with a 16th man since. On the field Munster’s rugby was focused after Anthony Foley's passing and their form since has turned heads all over the pace. The 8, 9 and 10 axis of CJ Stander, Conor Murray and Tyler Bleyendaal is dynamite and when you throw in the likes of Peter O’Mahony and Simon Zebo as well as many others it’s a winning combination.
The atmosphere at Thomond Park will be like no other and Toulouse have to keep their heads and take themselves to a level that they haven’t reached of late. Personally I think that’s asking too much of Ugo Mola’s side and while they may raise their levels to compete I don’t see them prevailing away from home.
Match Fact: Munster have won 31 of their last 34 games at home in the competition. Both sides are through to the knockout stage for the 16th time and each will be recording their 157th appearance in Europe's top flight.
Saracens v Glasgow Warriors - KO 13:00 - Live on Sky Sports 4
I don’t think that anyone who saw Saracens’ final half-an-hour against Bath would dispute the prediction that if they do that again they will be unstoppable. Saracens have been there and done it all before whereas Glasgow are stepping into the European knockout arena for the first time, the key for them will be to control their emotions and play their game.
Under pressure Saracens make teams veer off course. It happens time and time again where we see opponents fall into the trap of ending up trying to play Mark McCall’s side at their own game. These opponents may have had every intention of not doing so to but on the day, in the intense environment that Saracens create on the field they can’t help it. The challenge for Glagsow is to stay well away from this trap and put their own style and game on the park, if they do we'll see the best of Gregor Townsend's men akin to their performances against Leicester in particular in the Pool stage.
In all of these quarter-finals there will be internationals galore and in this game in particular those that were present in Scotland's game against England will want to prove that they do have the metal to deliver on the largest of stages. Throughout the weekend Warren Gatland will be keeping a close eye on all players and those that he’s undecided on can do themselves great favours in their quarter-finals. Lions aside I’m going to call this one and it won’t surprise you to read that despite Glasgow putting on a good show I’m tipping Saracens to deliver and progress.
Match Fact: This is the seventh time Saracens have reached the quarter-finals and their sixth season in a row. The clubs have met twice before with Saracens winning both Pool stage encounters in the 2007-8 season.
ASM Clermont Auvergne v RC Toulon - KO 16:15 - Live on BT Sport 2
An all French quarter-final will complete the set on Sunday afternoon as ASM Clermont Auvergne host RC Toulon at the Stade Marcel-Michelin.
On paper this seems like an easy one to call, Clermont Auvergne are the top seeds and they played some of the most positive attacking rugby that we saw during the Pool stage. On the other hand Toulon ground out their victories, turned it on to gain vital bonus points and forced themselves into a qualifying spot. The theory says Clermont at a canter but in practice it could be different.
Clermont Auvergne are European Rugby’s perennial bridesmaids and that is something Toulon must play on and awake in their opponents from early on. The element of doubt must be delivered as soon as possible to make their hosts shake. Toulon's extremely experienced individuals have to step up and deliver, their start must be on the money and they cannot let their intensity slip for a moment. It will be about drawing on all of their knowledge and really exposing that potentially exposing element of Les Jaunards.
When it comes to the hosts well it’s very simple for them, they need to start at a belting pace, put early tries on the board and thrive in their home atmosphere. A European match day at the Stade Marcel-Michelin is like Thomond Park - loud, intimidating and full on. The hosts must grow taller and embrace the burden of expectation on them and simple deliver as they did in the Pool stage.
Personally I’m hoping that we see the very best of both of these two giants of French rugby and that it results in a tremendous finale to what should be an outstanding weekend of European action. From hereon in it’s the best of the best and the quarters should deliver us with four humungous clashes.
Match Fact: The preview two meetings were both finals (2013 and 2015) which Toulon prevailed in each time. Clermont were the most disciplined side in the Pool stage conceding a competition low of just 7.8 penalties per game.
