So here we are, it’s the eve of the British & Irish Lions squad announcement and the waiting is almost over. I've lost count of the number of squads that I've read and the number of hats that have been thrown into the ring! However at the end of the day it comes down to one final selection meeting that will take place today and then that's it, decision made.
Since Warren Gatland's appointment there have been 15 autumn international matches and 14 RBS Six Nations encounters that included the home nations. Alongside those matches we've all watched countless PRO12 and Premiership clashes as well as the European competition. In short the Kiwi has had plenty to digest and also will have taken a good look at New Zealand's outings alongside the new Super Rugby season. Back in November at Canterbury's official shirt launch Warren Gatland told me that when he arrived at the decision making point players' prior Lions experience would play a part in his thought process:
“I think the same applies [continuity of faces], not just from a coaching point of view, but maybe for some of the squad as well. With players that have been on previous tours their form has got to be important, but there might be a player who you look at that’s been on previous tours and was a regular Test starter then but at the moment there are one or two others that are better than him. He could still be really good to come as an experienced Lions player that’s been on past tours and would be great for some of the youngsters and as a mid-week player.”
In this regard you’d put individuals like Cian Healy or Dan Cole as examples. Now I’m not saying that either are shoe-ins for places on the plane however when you think about the conversations that Warren Gatland will have had with his coaching team, experience is an element that will have been taken into account and may sway a head-to-head decision one way or the other.
Now as you’d expect by the day before a squad announcement there have been a few reports about players that are believed to be missing out. Joe Launchbury, Jonathan Joseph and George Ford are three names that arrived on Tuesday's back pages and online across The Times and the BBC and if those reports do turn out to be true then I have to say that I'll be surprised on the decision about the two Bath players in particular. Joe Launchbury is the ultimate athlete yet he's in a position of such great strength that whichever way you cut the lock selection cloth some outstanding Test players won't be on the plane.
Of course we all know that injuries may play a part before the opening Test on Saturday 24th June and those that aren't selected tomorrow could very well find themselves in a Lions jersey this summer. Let’s be clear here though, none of us want to see an individual that is announced tomorrow get injured and not be able to play their part because British & Irish Lions selection is the ultimate honour however it is part of the game of rugby and history shows that it is likely to happen.
Over the past few weeks there’s been much discussion of ‘bolters’ in particular individuals that perhaps haven’t even played international rugby yet or aren’t currently in international set-ups. While I have enjoyed the debates raging around as much as the next person I can’t see any true bolters getting a seat on the plane. Why? Well, let's just remind ourselves that this is a tour to New Zealand! It’s an obvious but very pertinent point. If this tour was heading to South Africa then I think there would have been room for manoeuvre however this squad announced tomorrow will be playing the world leaders, the benchmark, the standard setters. As a result I think that players have to have proven themselves on the most intense of stages and that means at international Test level. Some of the 'bolters' mentioned the likes of Denny Solomona and Christian Wade are excellent finishers and fine, fine wingers but if you look at those out wide that have played recently in the Six Nations and back in the autumn they provide just as much of a threat and are tried and tested in the international cauldron. 
When Warren Gatland was announced into role back on September 7th the external viewpoint of this tour was that it was an ‘impossible task’ however Ireland’s victory in Chicago altered that perspective considerably. My view has always been that with the talent available a tour victory is possible despite the lack of preparation time and it coming off the back of a long, hard season. I believe that the best of the home nations will be a force to be reckoned with and that will be shown tomorrow in the quality of the squad that is announced and equally through the players that miss out.
Another element that is a key point in potential success is that Warren Gatland and a number of his coaches have done this all before. They know the difference between this British & Irish Lions tour and a normal international tour and crucially the head coach himself is acutely aware of the nuances of the New Zealand the rugby landscape and the traditions of the country. Please don’t underestimate the value of this because this detailed understanding of what’s in front of them will be a vital element to a successful tour.
The British & Irish Lions is the pinnacle of Northern Hemisphere rugby, it gets you like nothing else and tomorrow every single player in contention will be feeling the nerves. Some may have heard whispers but until tour manager John Spencer says their names on stage none will feel certain that they have a place on the plane - bar the appointed captain!
